While Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his associates continue to publicly declare their intention to pass a historic draft law for charedim, assessments within the political system are increasingly pointing in a different direction—early elections, possibly sooner than expected.
Following a report in Maariv that Netanyahu’s inner circle is examining the option of advancing elections, with May 26 even being considered as a possible date, political sources say this scenario is gaining further traction. May 26 falls on the eve of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, one of Islam’s most important holidays.
From a legal standpoint, there is no obstacle to holding elections on that date. Election Day is already a national holiday, and there is no prohibition against holding it on the eve of a Muslim holiday. However, the prevailing assessment in the political system is that consideration of this date is not coincidental. According to sources familiar with the discussions, the underlying intention may be to influence voter turnout in the Arab sector, especially if Arab parties run separately rather than on a joint list, a scenario considered optimal from the Likud bloc’s perspective.
Ultimately, the date of early elections is determined through broad parliamentary agreement via legislation to dissolve the Knesset. Even if some factions oppose the chosen date, as long as a majority exists, the law will pass.
In the event of a petition, the issue could reach the High Court of Justice. However, even a scenario in which the court were to disqualify the election date due to its timing on the eve of Eid al-Adha would not necessarily be problematic for Netanyahu. In Likud, there is an assessment that such a ruling could actually serve the election campaign, which is expected to focus on confrontation with the judicial system and what Netanyahu’s circle refers to as the “deep state.”
One of the most prominent signs that Netanyahu may prefer early elections is the current situation surrounding the draft law. Despite official statements about a balanced and historic bill, in practice the chances of the law passing in its current form appear low.
On the charedi side, there has been a clear toughening of positions in recent weeks. Leading rabbis and heads of yeshivot have spoken out publicly against the draft law, against the very idea of compromises, and against any mechanism of sanctions, economic or otherwise. Some have sharply criticized reports attributing to them a willingness to reach agreements and clarified that they will oppose any law that recognizes conscription or enforcement, even partially.
At the same time, on the opposite side of the spectrum, Likud’s base is pulling in a completely different direction. A recent survey conducted by the Agam Institute among Likud party members highlights the prime minister’s dilemma. While the conscription law is not ranked as one of the two most urgent issues in the eyes of party members, when asked directly about the content of the law, the responses are clear and decisive.
About 40 percent of Likud members believe that economic and other sanctions should be imposed on those who do not serve, and nearly a similar proportion support rewriting the details of the law to include the conscription of charedi youth. An overwhelming majority supports granting significant benefits to those who serve in the IDF, reserve duty, or national service.
The most politically sensitive data point concerns the party primaries. About one-third of Likud members said that a Knesset member who supports continued exemption from conscription for the charedim would reduce their likelihood of voting for that candidate. For Netanyahu, known for closely listening to his base and to polling data, this constitutes a clear warning signal.
In summary, a draft law that satisfies the charedim may be perceived by Likud’s base as yet another exemption law and could cause Netanyahu electoral damage in an election year. Conversely, a law that includes real sanctions could dismantle the coalition and lead to an immediate crisis.
In this situation, the third option, failing to pass the law and heading to early elections,appears increasingly likely. This is especially true if elections are triggered not by a direct clash with the charedi parties, but by a more politically convenient pretext, such as the failure to pass the state budget. A scenario in which no one is officially to blame and the bloc remains intact. This would allow Netanyahu to face voters with a winning message: he did not give in to pressure, did not pass a law unacceptable to his base, and returned the decision to the public.
As reported by VINnews