Recovery efforts began even before ceasefire, sources say; IDF strikes rocket launcher in Lebanese border town; Blinken asserts truce is holding, monitoring mechanism is working
Hezbollah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, losing more than half its weapons stockpiles, but the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group will likely try to rebuild its arms and forces and pose a long-term threat to the US and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated US intelligence told Reuters Wednesday.
The evaluation came as Israel continued to hit what it said were Hezbollah forces violating a ceasefire that came into effect last week, while Washington said that the deal it helped broker was holding up.
The ceasefire is meant to put a halt to nearly 14 months of cross-border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that began when the group started firing at Israel in solidarity with allied Palestinian terror organization Hamas amid the war in Gaza. Securing the border area for northern residents, tens of thousands of whom were displaced by the fighting, has been one of Israel’s declared goals of the war.
US intelligence agencies assessed in recent weeks that Hezbollah, even amid Israel’s military campaign that decimated its leadership and weapons stockpile, had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria, said a senior US official, an Israeli official and two US lawmakers briefed on the intelligence, speaking on condition of anonymity.
It’s unclear to what extent those efforts have slowed since last week when Hezbollah and Israel reached the shaky ceasefire, two of the sources said. The deal specifically prohibits Hezbollah from procuring weapons or weapons parts, or maintaining a presence in southern Lebanon.
In recent days, Israel has tried to undercut Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its military forces, striking several Hezbollah rocket launchers in Lebanon, bombing border crossings with Syria, and blocking an Iranian aircraft suspected of ferrying weapons for the group.
On Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces said it had carried out a drone strike against a Hezbollah rocket launcher that was spotted in southern Lebanon’s Majdal Zoun.
The launcher “posed a threat to the State of Israel while violating the understandings between Israel and Lebanon,” the military said.
Troops also demolished Hezbollah weapons found Wednesday in southern Lebanon’s Khiam, as-Sawana and Aitaroun, the IDF said.
“The IDF is deployed in southern Lebanon and acts against any threat that endangers the State of Israel,” the army added.
US intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah is operating with limited firepower. It has lost more than half its weapons stockpiles and thousands of fighters during the conflict with Israel, reducing the overall military capacity of Tehran and its proxies to its lowest point in decades, according to the intelligence.
But Hezbollah has not been destroyed. It still maintains thousands of short-range rockets in Lebanon and it will try to rebuild using weapons factories in neighboring countries with available transport routes, the sources said.
One of the lawmakers said Hezbollah has been “knocked back” in the short term and had its ability to conduct command and control reduced. But the lawmaker added: “This organization is designed to be disrupted.”
US officials are concerned about Hezbollah’s access to Syria, where Syrian rebels recently launched an offensive to retake government strongholds in Aleppo and Hama. Hezbollah has long used Syria as a safe haven and transport hub, taking military equipment and weapons from Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon through the rugged border crossings.
Washington is trying to pressure Syrian President Bashar Assad to limit Hezbollah’s operations, enlisting other countries in the region to help, a senior US official said.
Reuters reported on Monday that the US and the United Arab Emirates have discussed possibly lifting sanctions on Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah officials have said the group will continue to function as a “resistance” against Israel, but its secretary general Naim Qassem has not brought up the group’s weapons in recent speeches, including after the ceasefire was reached. Sources in Lebanon say Hezbollah’s priority is rebuilding homes for its constituency after Israeli strikes destroyed swaths of Lebanon’s south and the southern suburbs of Beirut where the group embedded its headquarters and stored weapons.
The US National Security Council and the Office of the Director for National Intelligence declined to comment on the updated US intelligence.
Training challenges
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that Hezbollah had not been weakened by Israel’s killing of many of its leaders since January and by its ground assault against the group since early October. He said Hezbollah had been able to reorganize and fight back effectively.
However, US intelligence indicates that Israel has taken out thousands of Hezbollah’s missiles in Lebanon, pushing cadres of its fighters back from the border with Israel, the sources told Reuters.
While tracking the exact number of Hezbollah fighters remains a challenge, the intelligence notes that the group will likely face significant training challenges for years to come, the sources said.
US officials say Hezbollah’s breakdown points to a growing gap in Iran’s military capacity and raises doubts about its ability to use its proxies to attack Israel and its other adversaries in the short term. Iran also backs Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip and the Houthi terror group in Yemen.
In the past, had Israel considered bombing Iran, it faced the prospect of Hezbollah in Lebanon reciprocating, said a second US official, but with Hezbollah weakened, Israel can attack Iran directly without the same threat to its north.
In Gaza, US intelligence indicates Hamas can only sustain small, guerrilla-style tactics after having lost at least half of its fighters in the war that began on October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian terror group led a devastating cross-border attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and resulted in 251 hostages being taken to Gaza.
The next day, Hezbollah began firing across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, saying it was acting in support of Hamas. The Houthis in Yemen, who also say they are supporting Gaza, continue to launch missiles and drones at Red Sea shipping, but the US has been able to intercept most. The Houthis have also directly fired drones and missiles at Israel, which have also mostly been intercepted, though one drone killed a man in Tel Aviv several months ago.
Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah all avowedly seek the destruction of Israel.
The updated US intelligence — briefed to senior officials and lawmakers in recent weeks — emerges ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration. The US charged an Iranian man last month in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. Iran has rejected the accusation.
During his first term in office, Trump embraced a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, imposing harsh sanctions on Tehran, its military complex, and its most lucrative economic sectors. Trump in 2018 pulled the US out of a 2015 international agreement meant to deny Tehran the ability to build nuclear weapons. In 2020 Trump was responsible for a strike in Iraq that killed top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani.
US says ceasefire holding up
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday the ceasefire in Lebanon was “holding” despite a series of incidents between Israel and Hezbollah.
“The ceasefire is holding, and we’re using the mechanism that was established when any concerns have arisen about any alleged or purported violations,” Blinken told journalists on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in Brussels.
In addition to Hezbollah’s violations, France has accused Israel of having breached the truce by not coordinating its enforcement of the infractions with a newly announced international mechanism. Jerusalem has rejected the accusation.
“I think fundamentally, both parties, that is to say Israel and Hezbollah, through the Lebanese government, wanted and continue to want the ceasefire,” said Blinken.
“But we have to make sure that it’s upheld. And we’re determined to do that,” he added.
A committee chaired by the US that also includes France, UN observers, Israel and Lebanon is tasked with maintaining communication between the various parties and ensuring violations are identified and dealt with to avoid any escalation.
“The mechanism that we established with France to make sure that the ceasefire is effectively monitored and implemented is working, and we want to make sure it continues to work,” Blinken said.
“If there are concerns that one party or the other is violating the ceasefire, it comes to us, and one way or another, we engage the parties. That’s exactly what’s happened,” he added.
Lebanon Health Minister Firass Abiad said the Lebanese death toll from the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has reached 4,047, most of them since September.
The figure does not differentiate between combatants and civilians. The IDF estimates that some 3,500 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the conflict. Around 100 members of other terror groups have also been reported killed in Lebanon.
Starting October 8, 2023, Hezbollah-led forces — unprovoked — attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis. Hezbollah then expanded its attacks to also target cities in central and northern Israel with rockets.
Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern Israel near the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group. In September, Israel expanded its operations in Lebanon with the aim of enabling northern residents to return to their homes.
Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel since October 2023 have resulted in the deaths of 45 civilians. In addition, 76 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes, attacks on Israel, and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon.
As reported by The Times of Israel