Analysis: Empty threats of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities during the Obama era gave the U.S. added incentive to reach a deal and prevent war; the IDF chief’s new threats may be intended to do the same but could backfire

The Obama Administration learned that Israel is capable of speaking in two voices at the same time when it comes to the nuclear deal with Iran.

Six years ago, when emissaries of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knocked on the doors of members of Congress to voice opposition to any agreement with the Islamic Republic, they had been often preceded by IDF officials who advocated for a deal.

הרמטכ"ל אביב כוכבי
IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi speaking about on Iran on Tuesday (Photo: INSS)

 

Obama and his team were right to claim that the Israeli defense establishment was supportive of the administration’s moves. They did so in fact on every occasion.

But now, with the arrival of the Biden administration, Netanyahu took swift action to prevent a similar situation.

IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi was dispatched Tuesday to make clear he is on the same page as his boss. In his speech to the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, Kochavi not only aligned his position with that of the prime minister, he also raised the option of an Israeli military strike on Iran should it be warranted.

הצהרה נתניהו כוכבי וארגמן בעקבות המצב הביטחוני
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi in 2019 (Photo: EPA)

 

A cynical observer might think that Kochavi’s provocative words were part of an IDF campaign for additional funding from the government coffers, but even those who are void of such cynicism must wonder whether the mention of a military strike was a wise tactical move.

Similar empty threats to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities made back the Obama era actually yielded the opposite result, and were used by the White House as more of an incentive to reach an agreement with Tehran and prevent a war.

Former president Barak Obama speaking in 2015 about the nuclear deal with Iran
Former president Barak Obama speaking in 2015 about the nuclear deal with Iran (Photo: Reuters)

 

U.S. President Joe Biden is set on returning to the 2015 agreement and his team is likely already having dialogue with the Iranians – either directly or through mediators.

Now that the Republican Party has lost its majority in both houses of Congress as well as the White House, Israel has lost most of the leverage it had enjoyed in Washington.

We know Jerusalem is troubled because we can see Netanyahu and his cronies banking on Iran to resist American proposals.

The Iranians recently demanded compensation for sanctions imposed on them after former president Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. Some sanctions, especially those relating to support for terrorism and on human rights violations, may be difficult to remove.

That is why Israel’s ambassador in the U.S. Gilad Erdan raised the recent execution of journalist Ruhollah Zam in a speech on Tuesday.

With the Democratic majority secured in the Senate, Biden moved quickly to bring in officials from the Obama era. For them, the nuclear deal with Iran is not just another foreign policy matter – it is their legacy.

נשיא ארה"ב ג'ו ביידן ב הבית הלבן
U.S. President Joe Biden (Photo: Getty Images)

 

They have experience in negotiating with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his team, and the resumption of the deal is seen as a vital step in removing any remnants of the Trump years.

Israel should also be concerned by the desire of some of its American supporters to repair relations with the Democratic party. They view this as being of grave importance, and would resist any Israeli attempt to create controversy as they do so.

Kochavi was likely called to arms – and he acted accordingly. The IDF chief is an important addition to Netanyahu’s lobbying campaign in Washington, but the prime minister’s influence in the White House is a direct opposite to the one he enjoyed during the previous administration.

As reported by Ynetnews