By Rabbi Yair Hoffman for 5tjt.com
The current state of COVID-19 in America is that it is killing 3000 people every day. What follows is an analysis of the policy that has been adopted by the CDC as to who should be vaccinated first. In this author’s opinion, and in the opinions of numerous doctors and expert statisticians that this author has consulted with, the CDC policy is morally and halachically bankrupt. If one carefully examines the mission statement of the CDC – one will see that the raison d’etre of the CDC is to maximize the saving of life. Lehavdil, the parameters of halacha are also to maximize the saving of life.
NOT WHAT IS HAPPENING
But that is not what is happening here – with the priority of the vaccination system that has been implemented. Young, healthy people with antibodies are being given the vaccine – even before the elderly and those most at risk. In the local area, two caretakers of an elderly woman have been given the vaccine – long before the woman that they are taking care of. They wanted her to have it, but the state did not let.
THE BACKGROUND TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS
On December 3rd, the CDC made recommendations to the three governments throughout the nation – the federal government, the state governments and the local governments about who should be vaccinated first. These were called Phase 1A recipients. These recommendations were based on those made by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), an independent panel of medical and public health experts.
The three thoughts this author would like to share are as follows:
- The recommendations are wrong.
- At the current rate of deaths in this country, the recommendations are killing an extra 500 people per day. They will kill many thousands, if not tens of thousands of people
- There is still time to change them.
WE SHOULD ONLY FOCUS ON SAVING LIFE
The criterion as to who should be vaccinated first should be made solely with one factor in mind – to maximize the saving of life. This means if option A will save 4200 lives a week and the option that the CDC has chosen will save 700 lives then the policy is responsible for the death of 3500 people a week – which translates to 182,000 people per year. Those most at risk for dying and the elderly – should receive the vaccine first – this should be the only criterion.
The CDC website states that their recommendations were made with these 3 goals in mind:
- Decrease death and serious disease as much as possible.
- Preserve functioning of society.
- Reduce the extra burden COVID-19 is having on people already facing disparities.
The problem is that goal #2, and goal #3 undermine goal number one. The scandal that has happened in Brooklyn should be a call to the real scandal that is happening. It should be a clarion call to all doctors, presidents, clergymen and everyone that values life to change the criterion.
WHO IS GETTING IT NOW
Currently, healthcare personnel and residents of long-term care facilities are offered the first doses of COVID-19 vaccines (Phase 1a). Healthcare personnel are less at-risk for dying of COVID-19. According to those with a background in statistics, this decision will cause many thousands of deaths each week. True, the healthcare workers are heroes and they will be discussed later in this article. But, once again, those most at risk for dying should receive the vaccine first. That is it.
THE RECENT RECOMMENDATIONS
On December 22nd, the CDC made recommendations as to who should be included in Phases 1b and 1c.
1b will include frontline essential workers such as:
- fire fighters
- police officers
- corrections officers
- food and agricultural workers
- United States Postal Service workers
- manufacturing workers
- grocery store workers
- public transit workers
- those who work in the educational sector (teachers, support staff, and daycare workers.)
Really? What madness has entered the minds of the people making such decisions? The emperor has no clothes. Who are they to place value on one life versus the other? Trauma centers are designed to triage. Who made this decision – and why is this not the scandal of the century? Has the entire world gone stark raving mad??
WHERE IS THE MEDIA? WHERE ARE THE DOCTORS THAT ARE TRAINED IN STATISTICS?
Yes, true, in the1b phase, the CDC recommendations include people aged 75 years and older because they are at high risk of hospitalization, illness, and death from COVID-19. People aged 75 years and older who are also residents of long-term care facilities should be offered vaccination in Phase 1a.
In Phase 1c, the CDC includes people aged 65—74 years “because they are at high risk of hospitalization, illness, and death from COVID-19. People aged 65—74 years who are also residents of long-term care facilities should be offered vaccination in Phase 1a.”
In 1c, the CDC includes people aged 16—64 years with underlying medical conditions which increase the risk of serious, life-threatening complications from COVID-19.
Again, an error – this group should have been included in 1a.
Who else is in 1C? They are other essential workers, such as
- people who work in transportation and logistics,
- food service,
- housing construction and finance,
- information technology,
- communications,
- energy,
- law,
- media,
- public safety
- public health.
This is sheer madness, and actually a deeply immoral policy. We have thrown out all the logic of triaging and have adopted “politically-correct” notions in who shall live or who shall die. If ever there was a time for President Trump to step in and stop this insanity he should do so now. It will be his greatest legacy. In addition to all this – even those with antibodies, lots of them, are getting the vaccine – while others who are so at risk are not.
THE STATISTICIANS SPEAK
There are approximately 30 million essential workers. There are 540 daily deaths in the 25-65 range – we are assuming that they comprise 18 percent of these death and that they are no more likely than other members of that age range to be infected.
The CDC publishes data on the distribution of nationwide deaths by age as of a recent date in December. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
That produced the following distribution of deaths by age range:
All Ages
- 0% Under 1 year
- 0% 1-4 years
- 0% 5-14 years
- 0% 15-24 years
- 1% 25-34 years
- 2% 35-44 years
- 5% 45-54 years
- 12% 55-64 years
- 21% 65-74 years
- 27% 75-84 years
- 32% 85 years and over
Keep in mind that this is the percentage contribution of deaths regardless of whether people had underlying conditions. COVID deaths are currently in the 3,000 per day neighborhood nationwide. If we distribute those 3,000 deaths according to the above percentages, we get the following:
- Under 1 year 32
- 1-4 years 19
- 5-14 years 51
- 15-24 years 81
- 25-34 years 99
- 35-44 years 48
- 45-54 years 23
- 55-64 years 54
- 65-74 years 40
- 75-84 years 76
- 85 years and over 78
Total daily deaths 3,000.00
We see that ages 25-64 are contributing about 580 deaths per day while the 65-74 range are contributing 640 deaths per day.
There is an AARP article lays out some numbers for the respective groups in the CDC prioritization:
https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2020/covid-vaccine-pr
iority-groups.html
It says that there are about 30 million “frontline essential workers” and about 28 million Americans in the 65-74 range. The US population by age indicates that the population from 25-64 is approximately 170 million (Wikipedia).
Age men women total % of US % male % female male/female ratio
0-14 31,255,995 29,919,938 61,175,933 18.73% 51.09% 48.91% 1.04
15-24 22,213,952 21,137,826 43,351,778 13.27% 51.24% 48.76% 1.05
25-54 64,528,673 64,334,499 128,863,172 39.45% 50.08% 49.91% 1.00
55-64 20,357,880 21,821,976 42,179,856 12.91% 48.26% 51.74% 0.93
65+ 22,678,235 28,376,817 51,055,052 15.63% 44.42% 55.58% 0.80
all 161,034,735 165,591,056 326,625,791 100.00% 49.30% 50.70% 0.97
Assuming that the 30 million frontline essential workers are largely in the age 25-64 range, they represent about 18% percent of the total population in that range and would only be contributing about 100 deaths per day.
There are a variety of nuances that would arguably change the precise numbers – including overlap in the populations, different risk profiles of subpopulations. According to this, prioritizing frontline essential workers in front of age 64-75 would appear to be prioritizing a population segment contributing roughly 100 deaths a day over a segment contributing over 600 deaths per day.
THEY WON’T HELP
The argument has been made that healthcare workers should receive it first because otherwise no one will be there to help those who are sick. This is actually, not likely to betrue. Our healthcare workers are true heroes. As someone who witnessed them firsthand in the hospital, I questioned then and most did not have it. They are the real heroes of COVID-19 and would do it anyway. We are under-estimating the nature and character of our nurses and healthcare workers. And by doing so, we have adopted a policy that will kill untold tens of thousands.
DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE
The CDC must not forget the words of the Declaration of Independence: We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. Let’s go back to that first of the three – Life. Life comes before all. The CDC in this murderous, politically correct policy is depriving Americans of their inalienable rights – the right to live. This policy must be changed. We are causing the deaths of 500 Americans each day.
THE HALACHA
The concept of healing the one that is most at risk is found in the Pri Magadim of Rav Yoseph Teumim OC 328 in his Mishbetezes Halacha #1. In terms of halacha, the entire idea of placing the young before the old is incorrect. This is explicit in Rav Moshe Feinstein zt”l’s Igros Moshe (CM Vol. II #75:7). It is also in Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach zt”l’s Minchas Shlomo (MT 2-3 Siman 86) as well as the Even Bochen Migdal Oz #85 of the Yaavetz.
MORAL DUTY
It is this author’s view that it is our moral duty to point out this moral and ethical failure of the CDC and get it changed via Governor Cuomo – as soon as possible. The Governor can choose to implement or ignore the words of the CDC. Doctors trained in statistics, clergymen, public policy politicians who can consult statisticians – where are you? We should be lobbying Governor Cuomo now.
As reported by Vos Iz Neias